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Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe

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  • David E. Bloom

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Alfonso Sousa-Poza

    (University of Hohenheim)

Abstract

This special issue of the European Journal of Population focuses on possible economic consequences of low fertility in Europe. This introduction reviews the history of falling fertility in Europe and the literature that explores its causes, its potential implications, and possible policy responses. It also summarizes the evolution of thinking about the relationship between population growth and economic development, with attention to recent work on the mechanisms through which fertility decline can spur economic growth if the necessary supporting conditions are met. The introduction also identifies some of the challenges of population aging that are associated with low fertility and suggests that there may be less reason for alarm than has been suggested by some observers. The papers that appear in this special issue are also summarized.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 5410.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:5410

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Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda
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Keywords: Economic consequences; low fertility; Europe;

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References

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  1. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
  2. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler & Gunnar Andersson & Hans Lundström, 2007. "Approaching the Limit: Long-Term Trends in Late and Very Late Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 149-170.
  3. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, April.
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Malthus, Thomas Robert, 1798. "An Essay on the Principle of Population," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number malthus1798.
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," PGDA Working Papers 1706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  9. Tomas Frejka & Tomas Sobotka & Jan M. Hoem & Laurent Toulemon, 2008. "Summary and general conclusions: Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(2), pages 5-14, July.
  10. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127.
  11. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, April.
  12. Jan M. Hoem, 2008. "Overview Chapter 8: The impact of public policies on European fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(10), pages 249-260, July.
  13. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
  14. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(4), pages 47-72, July.
  15. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
  16. Paul R. Ehrlich, 2008. "Demography and Policy: A View from Outside the Discipline," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 103-113.
  17. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 3108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  18. Tomas Sobotka & Laurent Toulemon, 2008. "Overview Chapter 4: Changing family and partnership behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(6), pages 85-138, July.
  19. World Demographic and Ageing Forum & Hans Groth & Reiner Klingholz & Martin Wehling, 2009. "Future Demographic Challenges in Europe: The Urgency to Improve the Management of Dementia," Journal Article y:2009:i:1, World Demographic and Ageing Forum.
  20. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
  22. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  23. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  24. John Bongaarts, 2002. "The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 419-443.
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