Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication

In this paper, we critically reviewed and analysed demographic and economic data to show the trends of demographic transition in Bangladesh, and to estimate possible duration of demographic dividend using the accounting framework and Economic Support Ratio (ESR), followed by a discussion on recent trends in economic development, and how the country can be benefited from the demographic changes. We used data from the national level census and surveys, the World Bank and data from the United Nations Population Division. Our estimation shows that the possible demographic window of opportunity for Bangladesh opened up in 1984 and will last until 2037. The ESR of the country tended to go up from 0.481 in 1983 and will continue moving up to 1.082 in 2036, which will remain above 1 until 2050. The potential demographic dividend has been accelerated by the decline in fertility and mortality rate, and the increase in working-age people compared to the dependents over the last three decades. Though the country was likely to benefit from the demographic changes since 1980s, only recently it has made substantial progress in economic growth—which yet falls short of many countries having similar prospects. To realize the full potentials of demographic dividend, Bangladesh should expand its labour market with skilled labour force, increase female labour force participation, increase investment in health and education, direct accumulated savings into productive investment, and undertake decisive policies to generate mass employment through boosting formal sector.