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Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan

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  • Nayab, Durr-e-

Abstract

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries, with an associated decline in the dependent age population, offering a window of opportunity to these countries that is referred to as the “demographic dividend”. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend available to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms: labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might in fact be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2227.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2227

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Keywords: Demographic dividend; age-structure; demographic transition; Pakistan;

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  1. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  2. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2009. "When Does Domestic Saving Matter for Economic Growth?," Harvard Business School Working Papers 09-080, Harvard Business School.
  3. Hasan, Lubna, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 7342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
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  8. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
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  10. Andrabi, Tahir & Das, Jishnu & Khwaja, Asim Ijaz, 2006. "A dime a day : the possibilities and limits of private schooling in Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4066, The World Bank.
  11. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  12. Nadeem Ul Haque, 2006. "Beyond Planning and Mercantilism: An Evaluation of Pakistan’s Growth Strategy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 3-48.
  13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Nadeem A. Burney & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1992. "Socio-economic Characteristics and Household Savings: An Analysis of the Households' Saving Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 31-48.
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Cited by:
  1. G. M. Arif & Nasir Iqbal & Shujaat Farooq, 2011. "The Persistence and Transition of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: 1998-2004," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:74, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  2. Mazhar MUGHAL & Amar Iqbal ANWAR, 2012. "Remittances, Inequality and Poverty in Pakistan: Macro and Microeconomic Evidence," Working Papers 2012-2013_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Aug 2012.
  3. Naushin Mahmood, 2009. "Population and Development Demographic Research at PIDE," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2009:1 edited by Rashid Amjad & Aurangzeb A. Hashmi.
  4. Akbari, Ather H. & Rankaduwa, Wimal & Kiani, Adiqa, 2009. "Demand for Public Health Care in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 27874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ammara Cheema, 2013. "Upcoming picture of ageing population: Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2399-2413, August.

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