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Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?

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  • Durr-e-Nayab

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries. An associated decline in the dependent age population offers a window of opportunity, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend being offered to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms: labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might, in fact, be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 47 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-26

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:47:y:2008:i:1:p:1-26

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Keywords: Demographic Dividend; Age-structure; Demographic Transition; Pakistan;

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References

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  1. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Mazhar MUGHAL & Amar Iqbal ANWAR, 2012. "Remittances, Inequality and Poverty in Pakistan: Macro and Microeconomic Evidence," Working Papers 2012-2013_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Aug 2012.
  2. G. M. Arif & Nasir Iqbal & Shujaat Farooq, 2011. "The Persistence and Transition of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: 1998-2004," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:74, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  3. Naushin Mahmood, 2009. "Population and Development Demographic Research at PIDE," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2009:1 edited by Rashid Amjad & Aurangzeb A. Hashmi, June.
  4. Akbari, Ather H. & Rankaduwa, Wimal & Kiani, Adiqa, 2009. "Demand for Public Health Care in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 27874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ammara Cheema, 2013. "Upcoming picture of ageing population: Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2399-2413, August.

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