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Contraception and the Celtic Tiger

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Author Info
David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health)
David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health)

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Abstract

New cross-country evidence for 1965 to 1995 is presented on the link that runs from population change to economic growth. The estimates indicate that demographic change is a powerful determinant of income growth, operating mainly via the effect of changes in age structure. The estimates also indicate that the benefits of demographic change can be greatly magnified by a favourable policy environment. A case study of economic growth in Ireland suggests that the legalisation of contraception in 1980 resulted in a sharp decline in fertility and a sizeable increase in the relative share of the working-age population. This demographic shift, operating in conjunction with a favourable policy environment, can explain in large measure the birth of the Celtic Tiger. However, given demographic projections for Ireland, the Tiger’s roar may become less formidable as it continues to mature.

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File URL: http://www.esr.ie/Vol34_3Bloom.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2003
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 34 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 229–247
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:34:y:2003:i:3:p:229-247

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
    Other versions:
  3. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  5. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Frank Barry & John Bradley & Aoife Hannan, 2001. "The Single Market, the Structural Funds and Ireland's Recent Economic Growth," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 537-552, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
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  9. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 207-296. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
  11. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 335-76, October.
  12. de la Fuente, Angel & Vives, Xavier, 1997. "The Sources of Irish Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pierre Fortin, 2001. "The Irish Economic Boom: What Can We Learn?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 3, pages 19-31, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  14. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Walsh, Brendan, 2000. "Cyclical and Structural Influences on Irish Unemployment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 119-45, January.
  16. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bloom, David & Canning, David, 2006. "Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future," MPRA Paper 2577, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2006. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," PGDA Working Papers 2006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2008. "Éirvana," Working Papers 200812, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
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