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Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend

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  • Mr. Paulo Drummond
  • Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
  • Shu Yu

Abstract

Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We quantify the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions. The dividend will vary across countries, depending on such factors as the initial working age population as well as the speed and magnitude of demographic transition. It will be critical to ensure that the right supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paulo Drummond & Mr. Vimal V Thakoor & Shu Yu, 2014. "Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend," IMF Working Papers 2014/143, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/143
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    2. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    3. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India," MPRA Paper 109560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    5. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed, 2017. "Demographic Dividend & Economic Development in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 82880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2021. "Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 122-151, January.
    7. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic Change and Economic Development in India," Working Papers 2262, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    8. Joao Amador & Antonio R. dos Santos, 2018. "Thirty years of economic growth in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1802, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    9. repec:rac:ecchap:2017-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Odusola, Ayodele & MUGISHA, FREDERICK & WORKIE, YEMESRACH & REEVES, WILMOT, 2015. "Income Inequality and Population Growth in Africa," UNDP Africa Reports 267039, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    11. Thangavel Palanivel, 2018. "Shaping the Future: How Changing Demographics can power Human Development," Working Papers id:12673, eSocialSciences.
    12. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model," SocArXiv rvf9n, Center for Open Science.
    13. Bhorat Haroon & Ravi Kanbur & Rooney Christopher & Steenkamp François, 2017. "Working Paper 256 - Sub-Saharan Africa’s Manufacturing Sector: Building Complexity," Working Paper Series 2367, African Development Bank.
    14. Olaniyan, Olanrewaju & Olasehinde, Noah & Odufuwa, Oyeteju & Awodumi, Olabanji, 2021. "The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    15. James Sumberg & Louise Fox & Justin Flynn & Philip Mader & Marjoke Oosterom, 2021. "Africa’s “youth employment” crisis is actually a “missing jobs” crisis," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(4), pages 621-643, July.
    16. Kanbur, Ravi & Steenkamp, Francois & Rooney, Christopher & Bhorat, Haroon, 2017. "Sub-Saharan Africa’s Manufacturing Sector: Building Complexity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Sebastian Klüsener & Aiva Jasilioniene & Victoriya Yuodeshko, 2019. "Retraditionalization as a pathway to escape lowest-low fertility? Characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom”," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Ayodele Odusola & Frederick Mugisha & Yemesrach Workie & Wilmot Reeves, "undated". "Income Inequality and Population Growth in Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-10, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.

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