Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does age structure forecast economic growth?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bloom, David E.
  • Canning, David
  • Fink, Gunther
  • Finlay, Jocelyn E.

Abstract

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4PKP47X-1/2/accbdd813e485c1388e0d262ffca5fb8
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 569-585

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:4:p:569-585

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lee, Sang-Hyop & Mason, Andrew, 2007. "Who gains from the demographic dividend? Forecasting income by age," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 603-619.
  2. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
  3. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
  4. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
  5. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
  6. W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  7. Bloom, David E. & Freeman, Richard B., 1988. "Economic development and the timing and components of population growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 57-81, April.
  8. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 931-956, December.
  9. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
  10. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  11. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
  12. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  15. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  16. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
  19. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
  20. Steve Dowrick & Mark Rogers, 2002. "Classical and technological convergence: beyond the Solow-Swan growth model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 369-385, July.
  21. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  22. Shareen Joshi & T. Paul Schultz, 2007. "Family Planning as an Investment in Development: Evaluation of a Program's Consequences in Matlab, Bangladesh," Working Papers 951, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  23. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
  24. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
  25. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S158-S183, December.
  26. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  27. Robert J. Barro & Rachel McCleary, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 2000. "Forecasting Australian Economic Activity Using Leading Indicators," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  29. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 0589, European Central Bank.
  30. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531, December.
  31. Martha J Bailey, 2006. "More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women's Life Cycle Labor Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(1), pages 289-320, 02.
  32. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
  33. Rob J. Hyndman & Anne B. Koehler, 2005. "Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  34. Kraay, Aart & Monokroussos, George, 1999. "Growth forecasts using time series and growth models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2224, The World Bank.
  35. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  36. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229–247.
  37. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  38. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  39. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  2. Yunus Aksoy & Tobias Grasl & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Demographic Structure in OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3960, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ashoka Mody & Shekhar Aiyar, 2011. "The Demographic Dividend," IMF Working Papers 11/38, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Kenny, Charles, 2002. "The Internet and Economic Growth in Least Developed Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Walmsley, Terrie & Aguiar, Angel & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2013. "Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6643, The World Bank.
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  7. Vistesen, Claus, 2009. "Ageing and Export Dependency," MPRA Paper 17655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  9. Werner Bönte & Oliver Falck & Stephan Heblich, 2007. "Demography and Innovative Entrepreneurship," CESifo Working Paper Series 2115, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Jeremy Grace & Charles Kenny & Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang & Jia Liu & Taylor Reynolds, 2003. "Information and Communication Technologies and Broad-Based Development : A Partial Review of the Evidence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15053, July.
  11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  12. Hervé Boulhol & Laure Turner, 2009. "Employment-Productivity Trade-off and Labour Composition," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 698, OECD Publishing.
  13. Canning, David, 1998. "A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1929, The World Bank.
  14. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
  15. World Bank, 2004. "Chile : New Economy Study, Volume 2. Background Documents," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14711, The World Bank.
  16. Martin Werding, 2008. "Ageing and Productivity Growth: Are there Macro-level Cohort Effects of Human Capital?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2207, CESifo Group Munich.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:4:p:569-585. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.