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Does age structure forecast economic growth?

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Author Info

  • Bloom, David E.
  • Canning, David
  • Fink, Gunther
  • Finlay, Jocelyn E.

Abstract

High ratios of working age to dependent population can yield a increases the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 inclusion of age structure improves the model’s forecasts for the period that including age structure improves the forecast, although there instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000–2020.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 569-585

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:4:p:569-585

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  3. World Bank, 2004. "Chile : New Economy Study, Volume 2. Background Documents," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14711, The World Bank.
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  5. Kenny, Charles, 2002. "The Internet and Economic Growth in Least Developed Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Fink, Günther & Khanna, Tarun & Salyer, Patrick, 2010. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  7. Yunus Aksoy & Tobias Grasl & Ron P Smith, 2012. "The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1212, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  8. Ashoka Mody & Shekhar Aiyar, 2011. "The Demographic Dividend," IMF Working Papers 11/38, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Werner Bönte & Oliver Falck & Stephan Heblich, 2007. "Demography and Innovative Entrepreneurship," CESifo Working Paper Series 2115, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Jeremy Grace & Charles Kenny & Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang & Jia Liu & Taylor Reynolds, 2003. "Information and Communication Technologies and Broad-Based Development : A Partial Review of the Evidence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15053, October.
  11. Hervé Boulhol & Laure Turner, 2009. "Employment-Productivity Trade-off and Labour Composition," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 698, OECD Publishing.
  12. Vistesen, Claus, 2009. "Ageing and Export Dependency," MPRA Paper 17655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Martin Werding, 2008. "Ageing and Productivity Growth: Are there Macro-level Cohort Effects of Human Capital?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2207, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
  15. Walmsley, Terrie & Aguiar, Angel & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2013. "Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6643, The World Bank.
  16. Canning, David, 1998. "A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1929, The World Bank.

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