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Economic Development and the Timing and Components of Population Growth

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  • David E. Bloom
  • Richard B. Freeman

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries from 1965 to 1985. Our results indicate that developing countries were able to shift their labor force from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors, and to increase productivity within those sectors, despite the rapid growth of their populations. We also find that at given rates of population growth, income growth is related to the time path of population growth and that population growth due to high birth and death rates is associated with slower income growth than population growth due to relatively low birth and death rates. Hence, the timing and components of population growth are important elements in the process of economic development.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2448.

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Date of creation: Nov 1987
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Publication status: published as Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 57-81, (April 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2448

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  1. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barbara Entwisle, 1981. "CBR versus TFR in cross-national fertility research," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 635-643, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
  2. Tapas K., MISHRA, 2004. "The Role of Components of Demographic Change in Economic Development : Whither the Trend ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales), Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) 2004023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  4. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
  5. Robinson, James A. & Srinivasan, T.N., 1993. "Long-term consequences of population growth: Technological change, natural resources, and the environment," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Elsevier, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1175-1298 Elsevier.
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. & Pernia, Ernesto M., 1999. "Population Growth and Economic Development in the Philippines: What Has Been the Experience and What Must Be Done?," Discussion Papers, Philippine Institute for Development Studies DP 1999-22, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  9. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C., 2002. "Population and Poverty: A Review of the Links, Evidence and Implications for the Philippines," Discussion Papers, Philippine Institute for Development Studies DP 2002-21, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  10. D’Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Feast or flee: Government payments and labor migration from U.S. agriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-192.
  11. Ahlburg, Dennis & Lindh, Thomas, 2007. "Long-run income forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 533-538.

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