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Economic Development and the Timing and Components of Population Growth

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  • David E. Bloom
  • Richard B. Freeman

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries from 1965 to 1985. Our results indicate that developing countries were able to shift their labor force from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors, and to increase productivity within those sectors, despite the rapid growth of their populations. We also find that at given rates of population growth, income growth is related to the time path of population growth and that population growth due to high birth and death rates is associated with slower income growth than population growth due to relatively low birth and death rates. Hence, the timing and components of population growth are important elements in the process of economic development.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2448.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2448.

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Date of creation: Nov 1987
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Publication status: published as Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 57-81, (April 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2448

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References

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  1. Barbara Entwisle, 1981. "CBR versus TFR in cross-national fertility research," Demography, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 635-643, November.
  2. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2006. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," PGDA Working Papers 2006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  3. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C., 2002. "Population and Poverty: A Review of the Links, Evidence and Implications for the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2002-21, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  4. Robinson, James A. & Srinivasan, T.N., 1993. "Long-term consequences of population growth: Technological change, natural resources, and the environment," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1175-1298 Elsevier.
  5. Ahlburg, Dennis & Lindh, Thomas, 2007. "Long-run income forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 533-538.
  6. Tapas K., MISHRA, 2004. "The Role of Components of Demographic Change in Economic Development : Whither the Trend ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  7. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. & Pernia, Ernesto M., 1999. "Population Growth and Economic Development in the Philippines: What Has Been the Experience and What Must Be Done?," Discussion Papers DP 1999-22, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  8. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
  9. D’Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Feast or flee: Government payments and labor migration from U.S. agriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-192.
  10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

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