Empirical analysis of the anthropogenic pressure on the mangrove blue carbon-economic growth relationship

This paper analyzes the determinants of economic growth in coastal economies with the purpose of highlighting the impact of human activity pressure on mangrove blue carbon (BC). We use a Bayesian Model Averaging-based estimation technique to fit alternative growth theories to 1960-2009 data on a BC sample of 23 coastal countries and a worldwide (WW) sample of 83 countries. In addition to having high mangrove blue carbon climate change mitigation potential, a representative country from the BC sample possesses features commonly associated with developing countries. Moreover, such a country’s natural capital per capita has decreased by more than 50% during the half-century span of our data and its dependence on natural capital is almost twice as high as that of its WW counterpart. We find that the neoclassical theory, through income and investment in physical capital, demography, macroeconomic policy, and natural capital theories perform well in explaining growth in BC countries. In contrast, investment in physical capital and proxies for the macroeconomic policy and natural capital theories are found not to be good predictors of growth when using the WW sample of countries. These results put the finger on the critical problem of existing and potential anthropogenic pressure that coastal areas with BC are and can be subject to due to land conversion for agriculture, aquaculture, farming and other run-offs, marine resources exploitation, uncontrolled sewage, marine resources direct exploitation, and coastal constructions and public works related to natural capital exports. This admittedly grim picture of the coasts draws attention to at least two policy questions, namely, whether central governments ought to give local policy makers and communities incentives to promote nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and the extent to which international financial institutions should provide financial support for such initiatives in developing countries.