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Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach

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  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    ()
    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Abstract

Due to model uncertainty, there is no consensus about which are the most salient determinants of economic growth. To address model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging approaches have recently been used in cross-country cross-sectional analyses. This paper extends these approaches to panel data models with country specific fixed effects. We find that when using this approach the strongest evidence of robustness is for the trade openness, the size of the labor force, the government consumption level and the Latin America dummy. Moreover, our results are robust to different prior assumptions on the expected model size.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2007_0719.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2007_0719

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Keywords: Growth determinants; model uncertainty; Bayesian Model Averaging; dynamic panel estimation.;

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  1. Alvarez, J. & Arellano, M., 1998. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Papers 9808, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  2. Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, . "Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging," Working Papers 98-06, FEDEA.
  3. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  4. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  6. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  7. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  9. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
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  12. Ciccone, Antonio & Jarociński, Marek, 2008. "Determinants of economic growth: will data tell?," Working Paper Series 0852, European Central Bank.
  13. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008.
  14. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 04/68, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  16. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
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