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Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach

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  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    () (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Abstract

Due to model uncertainty, there is no consensus about which are the most salient determinants of economic growth. To address model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging approaches have recently been used in cross-country cross-sectional analyses. This paper extends these approaches to panel data models with country specific fixed effects. We find that when using this approach the strongest evidence of robustness is for the trade openness, the size of the labor force, the government consumption level and the Latin America dummy. Moreover, our results are robust to different prior assumptions on the expected model size.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2007_0719.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2007_0719

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Keywords: Growth determinants; model uncertainty; Bayesian Model Averaging; dynamic panel estimation.;

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  1. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  2. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  3. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
  4. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  5. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  6. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  7. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2008. "Determinants of economic growth - will data tell?," Working Paper Series 852, European Central Bank.
  8. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  9. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008.
  10. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 04/68, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund.
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