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Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

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  • David E. Bloom
  • David Canning
  • Günther Fink
  • Jocelyn E. Finlay

Abstract

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13221.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Publication status: published as Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13221

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  3. Jeremy Grace & Charles Kenny & Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang & Jia Liu & Taylor Reynolds, 2003. "Information and Communication Technologies and Broad-Based Development : A Partial Review of the Evidence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15053.
  4. Canning, David, 1998. "A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1929, The World Bank.
  5. Werner Bönte & Oliver Falck & Stephan Heblich, 2007. "Demography and Innovative Entrepreneurship," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-084, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  6. Kenny, Charles, 2002. "The Internet and Economic Growth in Least Developed Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  7. Vistesen, Claus, 2009. "Ageing and Export Dependency," MPRA Paper 17655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Fink, Günther & Khanna, Tarun & Salyer, Patrick, 2010. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Hervé Boulhol & Laure Turner, 2009. "Employment-Productivity Trade-off and Labour Composition," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 698, OECD Publishing.
  10. Yunus Aksoy & Tobias Grasl & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Demographic Structure in OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3960, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
  12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  13. Ashoka Mody & Shekhar Aiyar, 2011. "The Demographic Dividend," IMF Working Papers 11/38, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Walmsley, Terrie & Aguiar, Angel & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2013. "Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6643, The World Bank.
  15. Martin Werding, 2008. "Ageing and Productivity Growth: Are there Macro-level Cohort Effects of Human Capital?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2207, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. World Bank, 2004. "Chile : New Economy Study, Volume 2. Background Documents," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14711, The World Bank.
  17. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.

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