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The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition

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Author Info
Warwick J. McKibbin (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Research School of Pacific & Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia.)

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Abstract

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with potential implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of current and projected demographic change. It then applies a new 10-region global model (an extended version of the MSG-Cubed model) incorporating demographic dynamics, to examine the consequences of projected global demographic change on the world economy from 2005 to 2050. A distinction is made between the effects on each country of its own demographic transition and the effects on each country of demographic changes occurring in the rest of the world. (c) 2006 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 5 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 92-134
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:5:y:2006:i:1:p:92-134

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven A. Symansky, 1996. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Working Papers 96/140, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura, 1999. "Lessons from Generational Accounting in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 171-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and The Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," MEA discussion paper series 03028, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. Mcdonald, 2004. "Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages S1-S12, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Robert Holzmann, 2005. "Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 1885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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