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Changes in Equity Risk Perceptions: Global Consequences and Policy Responses

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    ()

  • David Vines

    ()

Abstract

The current weakness in the global economy has generated a debate on the likely outlook for the world economy and the appropriate response for monetary policies. The world economy is currently being buffeted by a number of major shocks. A particular feature has been the large fall in equity markets in many countries. In this paper we use the MSG3 global economic model to assess the impact on the global economy of a sharp rise in the equity risk premium in a number of countries. In particular we examine whether a rise in equity risk premia (or fall in productivity which has many similar implications) is a shock to aggregate supply or aggregate demand. We explore the difference in the transmission mechanism if the shocks occur just in one country (i.e. the United States) versus across the OECD generally. We then assess the appropriate responses of monetary policy to shocks of this type and explore whether there are gains to coordinating the monetary policy responses of the G7.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2003/wp-econ-2003-15.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2003-15.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2003-15

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  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  6. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 133-165.
  7. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 106-37, Winter.
  8. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  9. Gottfried Haber & Reinhard Neck & Warwick McKibbin, 2002. "Global Implications of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 363-379, October.
  10. Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What do we know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell did not?," NBER Working Papers 7550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Tan, Kang Yong, 2009. "Learning and international transmission of shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1033-1052, September.
  2. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.

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