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Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance

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Rod Tyers ()
Qun Shi

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Abstract

The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic sub-model, from which emerge the global implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. Corresponding changes are inferred in labour force size, and in patterns of consumption and saving and these are then analysed by incorporating the demographic sub-model into a correspondingly global economic model, based originally on GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated by age group and gender. As an application of the combined model the effects of increased longevity are explored on a global scale. Growth in real per capita incomes is slowed by this change, average saving rates fall and the distribution of global economic activity alters to favour those regions with high aged labour force participation.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers with number 2006-462.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2006-462

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
  3. Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nicoletta Batini & Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Harrigan, James, 1995. "The Volume of Trade in Differentiated Intermediate Goods: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 283-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ron Duncan & Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2004. "Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2004-441, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 547-583, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?," Working Papers RP2008/29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-469, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2006. "Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-467, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Till Bärnighausen & David E. Bloom, 2009. "Financial incentives for return of service in underserved areas: a systematic review," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
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