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Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations

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  • Graham, Brett
  • Tyers, Rodney

Abstract

The recent analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. We adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of the global and regional population forecast errors suggested by this study, via their demographic and income effects, for the performance of the global economy and the composition of global food demand. The model is “GTAP-Dyn”, a recursively dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world economy (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2000). The results indicate that slower than forecast population (and hence labour force) growth causes slower growth in Australia’s overall economy and in its agricultural, food and minerals sectors in particular. When the population growth slowdown is restricted to developing countries, the overall effects on Australia are smaller but there is a substantial reallocation of resources away from agriculture, food production and other natural resource based industries in favour of manufactures.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham, Brett & Tyers, Rodney, 2002. "Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare02:125091
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.125091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840.
    2. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318.
    3. John A.L. Cranfield & Thomas W. Hertel & James S. Eales & Paul V. Preckel, 1998. "Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1042-1050.
    4. Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
    6. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    2. Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rod, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," Conference papers 331414, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

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