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China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint

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  • Rod Tyers
  • Jane Golley

    (College of Business and Economics, Australian National University)

Abstract

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  • Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:1106
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    File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2006/PGDA_WP_11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2005-450, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    4. Zhang, Linxiu & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2002. "Employment, emerging labor markets, and the role of education in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 313-328.
    5. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    6. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," PGDA Working Papers 1006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    8. Jörg Mayer, 2002. "The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, June.
    9. Will Martin, 1993. "The Fallacy of Composition and Developing Country Exports of Manufactures," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 159-172, March.
    10. Fleischer, Belton M. & Yang, Dennis T., 2003. "Labor laws and regulations in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 426-433.
    11. Cai Fang & Wang Dewen, 2005. "Demographic transition: implications for growth," Labor and Demography 0512001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Guangyu Zhang & Zhongwei Zhao, 2006. "Reexamining China's Fertility Puzzle: Data Collection and Quality over the Last Two Decades," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 293-321, June.
    13. Robert D. Retherford & Minja Kim Choe & Jiajian Chen & Li Xiru & Cui Hongyan, 2005. "How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(1), pages 57-84, March.
    14. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    15. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Peter S. Heller, 1997. "Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian “Tigers”," IMF Working Papers 1997/136, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Hussain, Athar, 2002. "Demographic Transition in China and its Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1823-1834, October.
    17. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    18. John Giles & Albert Park & Fang Cai, 2003. "How has Economic Restructuring Affected China???s Urban Workers?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-628, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Chu Junhong, 2001. "Prenatal Sex Determination and Sex‐Selective Abortion in Rural Central China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 259-281, June.
    20. Sir H. W. Singer, 1998. "Beyond Terms of Trade: Convergence/Divergence and Creative/Uncreative Destruction," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 1(1), pages 13-25, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 265-297, February.
    2. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-491, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Huw McKay, 2008. "Metal Intensity in Comparative Historical Perspective: China, North Asia, the United States & the Kuznets Curve," GDSC Working Papers 006, Institute of Global Dynamic Systems.
    4. Ms. Mitali Das & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, 2013. "Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?," IMF Working Papers 2013/026, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Tyers, Rod & Golley, Jane, 2008. "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 547-574.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese economy; demographic change; labour market and economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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