Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jane Golley

    ()

  • Rod Tyers

    ()

Abstract

The world's two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China's demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation†for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India's potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2012/062012.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found (http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2012/062012.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2012/062012.pdf). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Cama Admin)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-06.

as in new window
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Email:
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Zoë Matthews & Sabu S. Padmadas & Inge Hutter & Juliet McEachran & James J. Brown, 2009. "Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(28), pages 693-720, June.
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India," CAMA Working Papers 2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Guenther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 2507, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  5. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2004. "The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 10919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2010. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Financial Reform," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 592-610, 08.
  10. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," PGDA Working Papers 1006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension fairness in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-36.
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.