IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/21245.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Dynamics and Household Saving: Evidence from the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Mapa, Dennis S
  • Bersales, Lisa Grace S

Abstract

The economic growth implications due to changes in the nation’s age structure have been substantial. In the course of the demographic transition, countries experience an increasing share of the working age population relative to the total population and this creates favorable effects on economic growth. The changing age structure also influences household saving rate. This paper looks at the role of the slow demographic transition in the Philippines to its aggregate household saving rate using panel data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (1985 to 2003). It is known for a fact that household saving rate in the Philippines is one of the lowest in East Asia. The econometric model is based on the augmented life cycle model and the results suggest that the country’s population dynamics plays an important role in its household saving rate. The Philippines rapid population growth creates a big bulge in the lower portion of the age pyramid that resulted in a higher percentage of young dependents. This suggests that the country is paying a high price for its high population growth resulting to low saving rate and consequently, low economic growth. The results also show that remittance from migrant workers is a major source of aggregate household saving.

Suggested Citation

  • Mapa, Dennis S & Bersales, Lisa Grace S, 2008. "Population Dynamics and Household Saving: Evidence from the Philippines," MPRA Paper 21245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21245/1/MPRA_paper_21245.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    4. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    5. Ronald D Lee & Andrew Mason & Tim Miller, 1998. "Saving, Wealth, and Population," Working Papers 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    7. Paxson, Christina, 1996. "Saving and growth: Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 255-288, February.
    8. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    9. repec:phd:dpaper:pjd_2006_vol._xxxiii_nos._1and2-b is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
    11. Arsenio M. Balisacan, 1997. "Growth and Equity in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 199705, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    12. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-380, December.
    13. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
    14. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-543, May.
    15. Andrew Coleman, 1998. "Household Savings: A Survey of Recent Microeconomic Theory and Evidence," Treasury Working Paper Series 98/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    17. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2006_vol._xxxiii_nos._1and2-b is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mapa, Dennis S. & Bersales, Lisa Grace S. & Albis, Manuel Leonard F. & Daquis, John Carlo P., 2011. "Determinants of Poverty in Elderly-Headed Households in the Philippines," MPRA Paper 28557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nikolaos Satsios & Mohga Bassim, 2018. "The effect of control variables on the saving motives of the Pomak households," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 15(1), pages 37-44, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2010. "The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 19-55, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    3. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2010. "Contribution of health to economic development: A survey and overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-52.
    4. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    5. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ni Lar & Sereyvuth Ky, 2021. "Revisiting the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia: a panel vector‐autoregressive approach with a saving channel," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 77-94, November.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    8. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    10. Munir Ahmad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2019. "Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 753-772, April.
    11. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    12. T. Paul Schultz, 2004. "Demographic Determinants of Savings: Estimating and Interpreting the Aggregate Association in Asia," Working Papers 901, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    13. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    14. Kapteyn, Arie & Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2005. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts: Productivity growth and Social Security," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1361-1391, July.
    15. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    16. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    17. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    18. Patrick Hamm & Lawrence King, 2010. "Post-Manichean Economics: Foreign Investment, State Capacity and Economic Development in Transition Economies," Working Papers wp227, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    19. Ruttan, Vernon W., 1998. "Growth Economics And Development Economics: What Should Development Economists Learn (If Anything) From The New Growth Theory?," Bulletins 12972, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
    20. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-32, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Transition; Saving Rate;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.