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Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications

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  • ROD TYERS

Abstract

Despite Japan’s prominence in global finance and trade through the 1980s its global role has appeared to diminish with its recent stagnation and the rise of China. This paper reviews the claimed sources of Japan’s stagnation, including productivity and labour slowdowns, monetary policy in the aftermath of the Plaza Accord and the surge in China’s growth. Their independent effects are quantified using a multi-region global dynamic model. The productivity slowdown emerges strongest though its exogeneity is questioned. The resulting losses are shown to have been severe for the Japanese but mild in other regions, disguised by the rise of China.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/10.1111/ecor.2012.88.issue-283
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
Issue (Month): 283 (December)
Pages: 517-536

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:88:y:2012:i:283:p:517-536

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References

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  1. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "Serial default and the “paradox” of rich to poor capital flows," MPRA Paper 13997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India," CAMA Working Papers 2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December.
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  6. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ippei Fujiwara, 2013. "The global impact of Chinese growth," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 399, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Effect of Immigration on Productivity: Evidence from US States," NBER Working Papers 15507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Technology capital and the U.S. current account," Working Papers 646, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Aloy, Marcel & Gente, Karine, 2009. "The role of demography in the long-run Yen/USD real exchange rate appreciation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 654-667, December.
  12. Dale Jorgenson & Koji Nomura, 2007. "The Industry Origins of the US-Japan Productivity Gap," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 315-341.
  13. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages S13-S23, 09.
  14. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  15. C. Randall Henning, 2008. "Accountability and Oversight of US Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4198.
  16. Peter E Robertson & Jessica Y Xu, 2010. "In China's Wake: Has Asia Gained From China's Growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  17. FUKAO Kyoji, 2010. "Service Sector Productivity in Japan: The key to future economic growth," Policy Discussion Papers 10001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," CAMA Working Papers 2014-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 9624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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