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Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India

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  • Jane Golley

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  • Rod Tyers

    ()

Abstract

The timing of China‘s and India‘s demographic transitions and the implications of alternative fertility scenarios are here explored using a global economic model incorporating full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that include the working aged and those of working age who do not work. The results show that, while the path of total dependency in China will be comparatively flat, the positive contribution of declining youth dependency to real per capita income will not be offset by rising aged dependency until beyond 2030. India‘s dependency ratio declines more sharply. Its higher initial fertility contributes positively to growth in GDP while weakening that in its real per capita income. Yet, so long as fertility continues to decline the latter negative effect will be partially offset by a demographic dividend worth at least five per cent of its 2000 real per capita income over more than three decades.

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File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2011/102011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2011-10.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-10

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2008. "Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," NBER Working Papers 14546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2004. "The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 10919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2010. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Financial Reform," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 592-610, 08.
  4. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  5. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2010. "Aging And Saving In Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 46-55, 02.
  6. Sir H. W. Singer, 1998. "Beyond Terms of Trade: Convergence/Divergence and Creative/Uncreative Destruction," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 1(1), pages 13-25, May.
  7. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-491, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2006. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," ISER Discussion Paper 0676, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2007.
  9. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
  10. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," PGDA Working Papers 1006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  11. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
  12. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  13. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2010. "The (dis)saving behavior of the aged in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 151-158, August.
  14. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Guenther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 2507, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  15. Zoë Matthews & Sabu S. Padmadas & Inge Hutter & Juliet McEachran & James J. Brown, 2009. "Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(28), pages 693-720, June.
  16. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-86, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 517-536, December.
  2. Marga Peeters, 2011. "Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 54(2), pages 58-92.
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies, and Economic Growth in China and India," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, October.
  4. Rod Tyers, 2012. "The Rise and Robustness of Economic Freedom in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  5. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Japan's Economic Recovery: Insights from Multi-Region Dynamics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  6. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Demographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare," MPRA Paper 31101, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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