China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Financial Reform
AbstractChina's economic growth has, hitherto, depended on its relative abundance of production labor and its increasingly secure investment environment. Within the next decade, however, China's labor force will begin to contract. This will set its economy apart from other developing Asian countries where relative labor abundance will increase, as will relative capital returns. Unless there is a substantial change in population policy, the retention of China's large share of global FDI will require further improvements in its investment environment. These linkages are explored using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior. Financial reform is measured by the effect of declining intermediation costs on the wedge between home and foreign borrowing rates, or the "investment premium." The influence of this wedge on China's projected economic growth performance is investigated under alternative assumptions about fertility decline and labor force growth. China's share of global investment is found to depend sensitively on both its demography and its interest premium, though the results suggest that a feasible continuation of financial reforms will be sufficient to compensate for a slowdown and decline in its labor force. Copyright (C) 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
Issue (Month): s1 (08)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011.
"Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India,"
CAMA Working Papers
2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012.
"Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
12-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies, and Economic Growth in China and India," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, October.
- Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India," CAMA Working Papers 2012-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Ito, Hiro & Volz, Ulrich, 2012. "The People’s Republic of China and Global Imbalances from a View of Sectorial Reforms," ADBI Working Papers 393, Asian Development Bank Institute.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.