China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia
AbstractChina's economic growth has, hitherto, depended on its relative abundance of production labour and its increasingly secure investment environment. Within the next decade, however, China's labour force will begin to contract. This will set its economy apart from other developing Asian countries where relative labour abundance will increase, as will relative capital returns. Unless there is a substantial change in population policy, the retention of China's large share of global FDI will require further improvements in its investment environment. These linkages are explored using a new global demographic model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Interest premia are integral with projections made using these models and in this paper their influence on China's economic growth performance is investigated under alternative assumptions about fertility decline and labour force growth. China's share of global investment is found to depend sensitively on both its labour force growth and its interest premium though the results suggest that a feasible continuation of financial reforms will be sufficient to compensate for a slowdown and decline in its labour force.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 1206.
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Chinese economy; demographic change; investment risk and economic growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2007-05-12 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2007-05-12 (China)
- NEP-DEV-2007-05-12 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2007-05-12 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2007-05-12 (South East Asia)
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