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The global implications of freer skilled migration

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  • Rod Tyers

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  • Ian Bain

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  • Jahnvi Vedi

Abstract

One consequence of the trade and technology driven increases in skill premia in the older industrial regions since the 1980s has been a perceived “skill shortage” in those regions, along with freer migration of skilled and professional workers from developing regions. While skilled migration flows remain too small to have large short-run effects on labour markets, a further opening to skilled migrants by the industrialised North could see substantial changes in labour markets and overall growth performance. The links between demographic change, migration flows and economic growth are here explored using a new demographic sub-model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Skilled migration flows are assumed to be motivated by real wage differences to an extent that is variably constrained by immigration policies. A uniform relaxation of these constraints has most effect on labour markets in the traditional migrant destinations, Australia, Western Europe and North America, where it restrains the skill premium and substantially enhances GDP growth. Skill premia are raised, however, in regions of origin, and particularly in South Asia, although the extent of this is shown to depend sensitively on the responsiveness of skill acquisition to regional skill premia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2006-468.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2006-468

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  1. Berman, Eli & Bound, John & Machin, Stephen, 1997. "Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence," Working Paper Series 486, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  2. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-469, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  3. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  4. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "What Determines Immigration's Impact? Comparing Two Global Centuries," NBER Working Papers 12414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. William Carrington & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "How Big is the Brain Drain?," IMF Working Papers 98/102, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  2. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  5. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Ian Bain, 2007. "Projected Economic Growth in China and India: The Role of Demographic Change," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-477, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  6. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2006. "Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-467, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  7. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-469, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  9. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  10. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

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