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Japan's Economic Recovery: Insights from Multi-Region Dynamics

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  • Rod Tyers

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia and Australian National University Australia)

  • Ying Zhang

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

Despite its key contribution to global economic growth through the 1960s and 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the importance of Japan recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as global investor and trading partner. Yet this role has been threatened by a tendency for its economy to stagnate since the 1990s and by the tragic earthquake of 2011, both of which have implications for global economic performance. This paper briefly reviews the many claimed sources of Japan’s stagnation and then analyses the sources of recovery along with the implications of the 3-11 disaster, using a multi-region global dynamic model. Both demand and supply side determinants prove important though it is shown that a key future role will be played by the performance of Japan’s services sector and of the industrial policies that affect it.

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File URL: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1857942/11-13-Japans-Economic-Recovery-Insights-from-Multi-Region-Dynamics.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 11-13.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:11-13

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  3. Boltho, Andrea & Corbett, Jenny, 2000. "The Assessment: Japan's Stagnation--Can Policy Revive the Economy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, Summer.
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  8. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Aloy, Marcel & Gente, Karine, 2009. "The role of demography in the long-run Yen/USD real exchange rate appreciation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 654-667, December.
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  11. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "The Causes of Japan's "Lost Decade": The Role of Household Consumption," NBER Working Papers 12142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. C. Randall Henning, 2008. "Accountability and Oversight of US Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4198.
  16. Peter E Robertson & Jessica Y Xu, 2010. "In China's Wake: Has Asia Gained From China's Growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  17. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  18. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2010. "Financial Crisis and Long-term Stagnation in Japan: Fiscal Consolidation under Deflationary Pressures," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2010-010, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
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