Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008

Contents:

Author Info

  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

This paper explores the links between macroeconomic developments, especially monetary policy, and the exchange rate during the period of Japan's bubble economy and subsequent stagnation. The yen experienced epic gyrations over that period, starting with its rapid ascent after the March 1985 Plaza Accord of major industrial countries. Two distinct periods of endaka fukyo, or recession induced by a strong yen, occurred in the late 1980s and the early 1990s at critical phases of the monetary policy cycle. My approach emphasizes the interaction of short-term developments driven by monetary factors (as they affect international real interest rate differentials) and the long-term determinants of the real exchange rate's equilibrium path. Chief among those long-run determinants are relative sectoral productivity levels and the terms of trade, including the price of oil. Since the mid-1990s, the yen's real exchange rate has generally followed a depreciating trend and Japan's comprehensive terms of trade have deteriorated.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14816.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14816.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14816

Note: EFG IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Coleman, 2006. "Accommodating Emerging Giants," 2006 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. GAULIER, Guillaume & LEMOINE, Francoise & UNAL-KESENCI, Deniz, 2007. "China's emergence and the reorganisation of trade flows in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 209-243.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
  4. Auerbach, Alan J & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2004. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 4447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
  6. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
  7. Vecchi, Michela, 2000. "Increasing Returns, Labour Utilization and Externalities: Procyclical Productivity in the United States and Japan," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(266), pages 229-44, May.
  8. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Robert C. Feenstra & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "China's Growing Role in World Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feen07-1, octubre-d.
  10. Susanto Basu, 1995. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," NBER Working Papers 5336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jaewoo Lee & Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 164-187, 02.
  12. Yan, Isabel K. & Kakkar, Vikas, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates and Productivity: Evidence From Asia," MPRA Paper 35218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Peter K. Schott, 2006. "The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports," NBER Working Papers 12173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
  15. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
  16. Luca Antonio Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2004. "Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
  18. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 131-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
  21. Amiti, Mary & Freund, Caroline, 2008. "The anatomy of China's export growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4628, The World Bank.
  22. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
  23. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2002. "Does the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Hold for Asian Countries? An Empirical Analysis using Panel Data Cointegration Tests," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 504, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  24. Mori, Naruki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Taguchi, Hiroo, 2001. "Policy Responses to the Post-bubble Adjustments in Japan: A Tentative Review," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 53-102, February.
  25. Okina, Kunio & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons: Background Paper," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 395-450, February.
  26. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices," Staff Report 404, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. Annika Alexius & Peter Sellin, 2012. "Exchange Rates and Long-Term Bonds," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 974-990, 09.
  28. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  29. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-17, May.
  30. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2008. "Exporting deflation? Chinese exports and Japanese prices," Working Paper Series 2008-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  31. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  32. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2002. "Asset Price Bubbles, Price Stability, and Monetary Policy: Japan' s Experience," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(3), pages 35-76, October.
  33. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-77, December.
  34. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  35. Alan Ahearne & Joseph Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steve Kamin ... [et al.]., 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Stephen B. DeLoach, 1997. "Do Relative Prices of Non-traded Goods Determine Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 891-909, November.
  37. Devereux, Michael B, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: A Model of East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 509-21, August.
  38. Masao Ogaki & Sungwook Park, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences," Working Papers 07-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  39. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-94, November.
  40. Vikas Kakkar, 2003. "The Relative Price of Nontraded Goods and Sectoral Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 444-452, May.
  41. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
  42. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 2001. "Financial Policy and Central Banking in Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032856, December.
  44. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Xinhua He & Duo Qin & Yimeng Liu, 2012. "Exchange rate misalignments: a comparison of China today against recent historical experiences of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 247-266, May.
  2. Galstyan, Vahagn A. & Lane, Philip R., 2008. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Agustín S. Bénétrix and Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Irish Economy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp281, IIIS.
  4. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Japan’s Economic Recovery: Insights from Multi-Region Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2011-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. André Mollick & Tibebe Assefa, 2013. "Carry-trades on the yen and the Swiss franc: are they different?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 402-423, July.
  6. Duo Qin & Xinhua He & Yimeng Liu, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments: Historical Experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan Compared to China Today," Working Papers 667, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14816. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.