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Exchange Rate Misalignments: Historical Experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan Compared to China Today

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  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Xinhua He

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Yimeng Liu

    (Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

This is a comparative study on the historical experience of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment of Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar, with regard to the recent dispute over the Renminbi (RMB) valuation. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the four economies show that net foreign asset build-up does not necessarily result in currency misalignment, and the recent misalignment of RMB is not unprecedented in terms of magnitude, duration or currency coverage, whereas volatility in REER misalignment is likely to propagate to inflation of the home economy concerned. The assertion of 'RMB rate manipulation' thus lacks empirical support.

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Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 667.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp667

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Keywords: REER misalignment; RMB; Yen; D-mark; Singapore dollar; Taiwan dollar;

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  1. Robert W. Staiger & Alan O. Sykes, 2008. ""Currency Manipulation" and World Trade," NBER Working Papers 14600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
  3. Richard C. Marston, 1986. "Real Exchange Rates and Productivity Growth in the United States and Japan," NBER Working Papers 1922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Schnabl, Gunther, 2003. "China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia?The problem of conflicted virtue," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 263, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
  8. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C103-C124, March.
  9. Ronald MacDonald & Preethike Dias, 2007. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries," Working Papers 2007_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  10. MacDonald, Ronald & Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2007. "Real exchange rates, imperfect substitutability, and imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 639-664, December.
  11. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
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