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Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?

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  • Mr. Gauti B. Eggertsson
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of quantitative easing implemented by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) since early 2001, looking specifically at the impact on inflation expectations and real asset prices. It suggests a number of possible channels through which quantitative easing may have exerted influence, and reviews some of the empirical evidence linking open market operations and long-term bond purchases to real yields and other asset prices. It argues that quantitative easing has had smaller effects on nominal and real variables than desired, mainly because the BoJ has not succeeded in credibly communicating its policy intentions once the zero bound on short-term rates ceases to be binding. It argues that setting clear goals for inflation and a return to interest rate targeting are not only key elements of a successful strategy to avoid deflation, but are also essential to pin down expectations and avoid instability once deflation wanes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/005, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfpdp:2005/005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
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    5. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
    6. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Policy Options in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 76-79, May.
    7. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    9. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
    10. Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/003, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Mark R. Stone & Mr. Charles Frederick Kramer, 2005. "A Post-Reflation Monetary Framework for Japan," IMF Working Papers 2005/073, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Japan's Liquidity Trap," Working Papers 76, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
    3. repec:pri:cepsud:126svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Japan's Liquidity Trap," Working Papers 76, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Tamim Bayoumi & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl F Habermeier & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Fabian Valencia, 2014. "Monetary Policy in the New Normal," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/3, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.
    7. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Japan’s Economic Recovery: Insights from Multi-Region Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2011-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. KAMGNA, Severin Yves & Ndambendia, Houdou, 2008. "Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC [Excess liquidity and monetary policy effectiveness: The case of CEMAC countries]," MPRA Paper 9599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Marie-Louise Djigbenou, 2014. "Determinants of Global Liquidity Dynamics:a FAVAR approach," Working Papers hal-00956314, HAL.
    11. Khemraj, Tarron, 2013. "Bank liquidity preference and the investment demand constraint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 977-990.
    12. James D. Foster, 2009. "Keynesian Policies Stimulate Dabate And Debt, Not Employment," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 20-25, July.
    13. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

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