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The "News" View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral U.S. Data

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  • Paul Beaudry
  • Franck Portier

Abstract

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral U.S. data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in Beaudry and Portier [2004b]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the U.S., innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect U.S. sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving U.S. TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11496.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11496

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References

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  1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois & Portier, Franck, 1997. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-121, November.
  4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Roger Hammersland, 2008. "Classical identification: A viable road for data to inform structural modeling," Discussion Papers 562, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  3. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  4. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "The spirit of capitalism and expectation-driven business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 739-752, September.
  5. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2008. "Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations:A Markov Switching Structural VectorAutoregressive Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2407, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki & INABA Masaru, 2007. "Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles," Discussion papers 07013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  7. Roger Hammersland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence using a procedure of Structural Model Design," Discussion Papers 569, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  8. Fève, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," IDEI Working Papers 706, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  9. Paul Beaudry & Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier, 2011. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, January.
  10. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Miyazawa, Kensuke & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 292-304.
  11. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
  12. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.

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