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The "News" View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral U.S. Data

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Author Info
Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

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Abstract

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral U.S. data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in Beaudry and Portier [2004b]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the U.S., innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect U.S. sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving U.S. TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11496.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11496

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E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François & Portier, Franck, 1996. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9606, CEPREMAP.
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  2. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki & INABA Masaru, 2007. "Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles," Discussion papers 07013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
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