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Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China

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  • Rod Tyers

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Abstract

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China’s economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world an improved terms of trade and cheaper finance. Yet it is believed by China’s government that this convenient strategy has run its course and the transition has begun to a model that “looks inward†for growth, to be driven by expanding consumption and home investment. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available “inward†sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. Success will require the redistribution of the considerable rents now accruing to connections of key state owned enterprises, suggesting the potential for political resistance and the yet-avoidable possibility that China could fall into a “middle income trapâ€.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-15.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-15

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  1. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2007. "Appreciating the Renminbi," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-483, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "Direct investment, rising real wages and the absorption of excess labor in the periphery," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  4. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
  5. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
  7. Rod Tyers & Ling Huang, 2009. "Combating China'S Export Contraction: Fiscal Expansion Or Accelerated Industrial Reform?," CAMA Working Papers 2009-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Don Gunasekera & Rod Tyers, 1989. "Imperfect Competition and Returns to Scale in a Newly Industrialising Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Korean Trade Policy," School of Economics Working Papers 1989-04, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  9. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/89, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  13. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2011. "The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0821, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  14. Choi, Horag & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2008. "Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 30-53, May.
  15. Hamada, Koichi & Okada, Yasushi, 2009. "Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 200-219, June.
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  22. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-32, December.
  23. Easterly, William, 2001. " The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-57, June.
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  26. Xinxin Chen & Qiuqiong Huang & Scott Rozelle & Yaojiang Shi & Linxiu Zhang, 2009. "Effect of Migration on Children's Educational Performance in Rural China," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 323-343, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Rod TYERS, 2013. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Rod Tyers, 2014. "International Effects of China’s Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives," CAMA Working Papers 2014-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Rod Tyers, 2014. "Analysing the Short Run Effects of China’s Economic Reform Agenda," CAMA Working Papers 2014-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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