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Looking inward for transformative growth

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  • Tyers, Rod

Abstract

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China's economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world improved terms of trade in both product and financial markets, in the form of cheaper light manufactures and cheaper credit. Yet slowing demand in export destinations has forced a transition to inward-sourced growth. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available “inward” sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. The potential for further “transformative” growth is shown to be considerable though it will require accelerated skilled labour supply growth and the politically difficult extension of industry policy reform to heavy manufacturing and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Tyers, Rod, 2014. "Looking inward for transformative growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:166-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.04.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Yaobo Shi & Chun-Ping Chang & Chyi-Lu Jang & Yu Hao, 2018. "Does economic performance affect officials’ turnover? Evidence from municipal government leaders in China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1873-1891, July.
    3. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    4. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2019. "China's ‘New Normal’: Is the growth slowdown demand- or supply-driven?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    7. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2019. "Financial Integration and the Global Effects of China's Growth Surge," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Rod Tyers, 2015. "Financial Integration and China's Global Impact," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2018. "China's ‘New Normal’: How will China's Growth Slowdown Affect Australia's Growth?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 435-445, December.
    10. Akihito Asano & Rod Tyers, 2015. "Third Arrow Reforms and Japan’s Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 66-88, February.
    12. Ku‐Hsieh Chen & Pei‐Hua Chen & Yen‐Ju Lin & Ching‐Fang Chi, 2022. "To sell the cow and drink the milk: How could China harmonize its growth and risk?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2949-2964, July.
    13. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2017. "China’s ‘New Normal’: How will China’s growth slowdown affect Australia’s growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 17-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2022. "A Bamboo Curtain: The Grim Australian Consequences of China Conflict," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 22-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Asano, Akihito & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Japan's oligopolies: Potential economy wide gains from structural reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 361-375.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Growth transition; Oligopoly; Price caps; Privatisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L43 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation

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