When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China
AbstractUsing international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around US$ 17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 11 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2011. "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," NBER Working Papers 16919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2010.
"Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects,"
ADB Economics Working Paper Series
220, Asian Development Bank.
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
- Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012.
"Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
- Loren Brandt & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Yifan Zhang, 2009. "Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 15152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010.
"Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-27, December.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," NBER Working Papers 16580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why have economic reforms in Mexico not generated growth?," Staff Report 453, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006.
Working Paper Series
rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002.
"Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert W. Fogel, 2007. "Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations," NBER Working Papers 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Rod Tyers, 2013.
"Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China,"
CAMA Working Papers
2013-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Shekhar Aiyar & Romain A Duval & Damien Puy & Yiqun Wu & Longmei Zhang, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 13/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Funke & Xi Chen, 2012.
"The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
21206, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Chen, Xi & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 465-480.
- Funke, Michael & Chen, Xi, 2012. "The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Im, Fernando Gabriel & Rosenblatt, David, 2013. "Middle-income traps : a conceptual and empirical survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6594, The World Bank.
- Nicole Alice Sindzingre, 2011. "The Rise of China in Sub-Saharan Africa: its Ambiguous Economic Impacts," Post-Print halshs-00636022, HAL.
- Barbara Dluhosch & Michael Pflüger & Philipp Ehrl & Volker Treier, 2013. "Asien, Lateinamerika: Verschiebt der Aufstieg der neuen Wachstumsmärkte das Kräfteverhältnis auf dem Weltmarkt?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 03-14, 03.
- Scott Bowman & Patrick Conway, 2013. "The Outlook for China’s Growth and its Impact on New Zealand Exports," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/16, New Zealand Treasury.
- Arielle Joseph & Bernhard Troester, 2013. "Can the Mauritian Miracle continue? - The role of financial and ICT services as prospective growth drivers," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1301, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.