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Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects

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  • Lee, Jong-Wha

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Hong, Kiseok

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past 3 decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region’s past economic growth remain relatively limited. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next 2 decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. By expanding at robust rates, developing Asia will account for close to two thirds of the world economy in 2030, almost doubling the current 34% share of the region in 2009.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 220.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0220

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Keywords: economic growth; growth accounting; capital accumulation; human capital; total factor productivity;

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References

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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Scott Bowman & Patrick Conway, 2013. "The Outlook for China’s Growth and its Impact on New Zealand Exports," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/16, New Zealand Treasury.
  2. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2010. "Why are Saving Rates so High in China?," Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research 312010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Scott Bowman & Patrick Conway, 2013. "China’s recent growth and its impact on the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/15, New Zealand Treasury.
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2011. "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," NBER Working Papers 16919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2011. "The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," ISER Discussion Paper, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University 0821, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Funke, Michael & Chen, Xi, 2012. "The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 13/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  7. Shioji, Etsuro & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "Physical capital accumulation in Asia 12: Past trends and future projections," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 138-149.
  8. Dorrucci, Ettore & Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2013. "China's economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Paper Series 142, European Central Bank.
  9. Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  10. Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
  11. Park, Jungsoo, 2012. "Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 114-127.
  12. Molinari, Benedetto & Rodríguez, Jesús & Torres, José L., 2013. "Growth and technological progress in selected Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-71.

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