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Real Income Stagnation of Countries, 1960-2001

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  • Sanjay G. Reddy

    (Department of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University)

  • Camelia Minoiu

    (Department of Economics, Columbia University)

Abstract

This paper examines the phenomenon of real-income stagnation (in which real-income growth is negligible or negative for a sizable uninterrupted sequence of years). It analyzes data for four decades from a large cross-section of countries. Real income stagnation is a conceptually distinct phenomenon from low average growth and other features of the growth sequence that have been held to be of interest in the literature. We find that real income stagnation has affected a significant number of countries (103 out of 168), and resulted in substantial income loss. Countries that suffered spells of real income stagnation were more likely to be poor, in Latin America or sub-Saharan Africa, conflict ridden and dependent on primary commodity exports. Stagnation is also very likely to persist over time. Countries that were afflicted with stagnation in the 1960s had a likelihood of seventy-five percent of also being afflicted with stagnation in the 1990s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0509004.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0509004

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 50
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Keywords: real income stagnation; patterns of economic growth;

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  1. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
  2. Rodrik, Dani, 1998. "Where Did all the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collapses," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
  4. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
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  6. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Understanding the Evidence on Venezuelan Economic Growth," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics 2006-009, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  7. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May.
  8. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  9. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. " Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
  10. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 2014. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," CESifo Working Paper Series 4594, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Chris Papageorgiou & Andrew Berg & Catherine A. Pattillo & Nicola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 10/205, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Francisco Rodríguez, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics 2008-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  4. Isabel Ortiz & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion – A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries," Working papers, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy 1105, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  5. Bluhm, Richard & Crombrugghe, Denis de & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Explaining the dynamics of stagnation: An empirical examination of the North, Wallis and Weingast approach," MERIT Working Papers, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) 040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  6. Jomo Kwame Sundaram & Rudiger von Arnim, 2008. "Economic liberalization and constraints to development in sub-Saharan africa," Working Papers, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs 67, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  7. Milanovic, Branko, 2009. "Global inequality recalculated: The effect of new 2005 PPP estimates on global inequality," MPRA Paper 16538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Andrew Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2011. "What makes growth sustained?," Working Papers, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist 133, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  9. Ricardo Hausmann & Francisco Rodríguez & Rodrigo Wagner, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics 2006-024, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  10. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McDermott, John, 2013. "Economic depression in the world," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 227-242.
  11. Branko Milanovic, 2012. "Global inequality recalculated and updated: the effect of new PPP estimates on global inequality and 2005 estimates," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.

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