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An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis

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Author Info
Francisco Rodríguez () (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)

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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical test of a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. The test is based on the observation that the nonconvexities in the production function necessary to generate multiple equilibria need only be present in the region between the equilibria. Increasing returns should therefore be strongest when the economy is transitioning between steady states than when it is at or near one of those steady states. I implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth collapses for a panel of developing and developed economies using UNIDO's Database of Industrial Statistics. I find no evidence of systematic differences in economies of scale between transition and non-transition episodes, shedding doubt on the idea that increasing returns in manufacturing generate poverty traps.

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Paper provided by Wesleyan University, Department of Economics in its series Wesleyan Economics Working Papers with number 2008-005.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2008-005

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  1. Laitner, John, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 545-61, July.
  2. Costas Aariadis & John Stachurski, 2004. "Poverty Traps," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 913, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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    • Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. William Easterly, 2006. "Reliving the 1950s: the big push, poverty traps, and takeoffs in economic development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 289-318, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2005. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries, 1960-2001," Development and Comp Systems 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 617-50, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306.
  12. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3631, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Author-Name: Jeffrey D. Sachs & John W. McArthur & Guido Schmidt-Traub & Margaret Kruk & Chandrika Bahadur & Michael Faye & Gordon McCord, 2004. "Ending Africa's Poverty Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2004-1), pages 117-240. [Downloadable!]
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos & Velasco, Andres, 2008. "Money, Crises, and Transition Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 13232, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2003. " Geography and Poverty Traps," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 355-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ricardo Hausmann & Francisco Rodríguez & Rodrigo Wagner, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-024, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    • Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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