The end of an era? The medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries
AbstractThis paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) in its series IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth with number 25.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 2, 06120 Halle(Saale)
Phone: (+49) (0) 345 / 29 28 0
Fax: (+49) (0) 345 / 29 28 199
Web page: http://www.iamo.de/
More information through EDIRC
Global financial crisis; external shocks; low-income countries; medium- and long-term growth; impulse response functions; growth spells; panel growth regressions;
Other versions of this item:
- Chris Papageorgiou & Andrew Berg & Catherine A. Pattillo & Nicola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/205, International Monetary Fund.
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
- O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2011-11-07 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-IFN-2011-11-07 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993.
"Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
- Costas Aariadis & John Stachurski, 2004.
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
913, The University of Melbourne.
- Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012.
"The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
- Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 699, OECD Publishing.
- Sanjeev Gupta & Catherine A. Pattillo & Kevin Joseph Carey, 2005. "Sustaining Growth Accelerations and Pro-Poor Growth in Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/195, International Monetary Fund.
- Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009.
"Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001,"
Journal of Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23.
- Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2005. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries, 1960-2001," Development and Comp Systems 0509004, EconWPA.
- Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2006. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries, 1960-2001," Working Papers 28, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
- Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Catherine A. Pattillo & Martin Schindler & Nicola Spatafora & Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/27, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009.
"Structural Policies for Shock-Prone Developing Countries,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
2009-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural policies for shock-prone developing countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 703-726, October.
- Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural Policies for Shock-Prone Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2009-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2009. "Structural policies for shock-prone developing countries," MPRA Paper 17311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008.
"Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry & Bruno van Pottelsberghe, 2009. "Handle with care! Post-crisis growth in the EU," Policy Briefs 301, Bruegel.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/132, International Monetary Fund.
- Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
- Sergei Antoshin & Andrew Berg & Marcos Souto, 2008. "Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples," IMF Working Papers 08/75, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/155, International Monetary Fund.
- SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Montfort Mlachila & Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region," IMF Working Papers 11/174, International Monetary Fund.
- Era Dabla-Norris & Yasemin Bal-Gunduz, 2012. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/264, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.