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Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction

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Author Info
Juan Blyde ()
Christian Daude
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between output collapses—defined defined as GDP falling substantially below trend—and total factor productivity (TFP), using a panel of 71 developed and developing countries during the period 1960-2003 to identify episodes of output collapse and estimate counterfactual post-collapse TFP trends. Collapses are concentrated in developing countries, especially African and Latin American, and were particularly widespread in the 1980s in Latin America. Overall, output collapses are systematically associated with long-lasting declines in TFP. The paper explores the conditions under which collapses are least or most damaging, as well as the type of shocks that make collapses more likely or severe, and additionally quantifies the welfare cost associated with output collapses.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4610.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4610

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Related research
Keywords: Growth; recessions; productivity; recovery;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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