When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China
AbstractUsing international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.
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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Other versions of this item:
- Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, February.
- F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2011-04-09 (Development)
- NEP-OPM-2011-04-09 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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