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When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China

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  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Donghyun Park
  • Kwanho Shin

Abstract

Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16919.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Publication status: published as Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, February.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16919

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  1. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why have economic reforms in Mexico not generated growth?," Staff Report 453, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Loren Brandt & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Yifan Zhang, 2009. "Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 15152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ricardo Hausmann & Francisco Rodríguez & Rodrigo Wagner, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-024, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010. "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010," NBER Working Papers 15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
  8. Robert W. Fogel, 2007. "Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations," NBER Working Papers 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  1. Ways Round the Middle Income Trap
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-11-07 14:23:00
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Cited by:
  1. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346 Elsevier.
  2. Michael Funke & Xi Chen, 2012. "The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21206, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  3. Keun Lee and John Mathews, 2013. "Science, technology and innovation for sustainable development," CDP Background Papers 016, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  4. Arielle Joseph & Bernhard Troester, 2013. "Can the Mauritian Miracle continue? - The role of financial and ICT services as prospective growth drivers," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1301, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
  5. Rod Tyers, 2013. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2013-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Jane Haltmaier, 2013. "Challenges for the future of Chinese economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 1072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Scott Bowman & Patrick Conway, 2013. "The Outlook for China’s Growth and its Impact on New Zealand Exports," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/16, New Zealand Treasury.
  8. Arvind Virmani, 2012. "Accelerating And Sustaining Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/185, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.
  10. Barry Eichengreen, 2011. "Escaping the middle-income trap," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 409-419.
  11. Paul Hubbard & Samuel Hurley & Dhruv Sharma, 2012. "The familiar pattern of Chinese consumption growth," Economic Roundup, Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 63-78, December.
  12. Nicole Alice Sindzingre, 2011. "The Rise of China in Sub-Saharan Africa: its Ambiguous Economic Impacts," Post-Print halshs-00636022, HAL.
  13. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  14. Vivarelli, Marco, 2014. "Structural Change and Innovation as Exit Strategies from the Middle Income Trap," IZA Discussion Papers 8148, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Schellekens, Philip, 2013. "A Changing China: Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 118, pages 1-9, May.
  16. Shekhar Aiyar & Romain A Duval & Damien Puy & Yiqun Wu & Longmei Zhang, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 13/71, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Im, Fernando Gabriel & Rosenblatt, David, 2013. "Middle-income traps : a conceptual and empirical survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6594, The World Bank.
  18. Barbara Dluhosch & Michael Pflüger & Philipp Ehrl & Volker Treier, 2013. "Asien, Lateinamerika: Verschiebt der Aufstieg der neuen Wachstumsmärkte das Kräfteverhältnis auf dem Weltmarkt?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 03-14, 03.
  19. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth," MPRA Paper 54129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Israel Malkin & Mark M. Spiegel, 2012. "Is China due for a slowdown?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct15.

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