This paper argues that developing countries’ growth successes and collapses tend to cluster in specific time periods—and that only the existence of a global development cycle can explain this. The cycle reflects the external factors that affect all, or large clusters of developing countries, and thus constrain their growth possibilities. Nonetheless, country-specific factors—particularly patterns of specialization—play a significant role in determining growth dynamics. From this perspective, the paper shows a very large difference between the economic growth of developing countries diversifying into higher technology manufacturing exports and those experiencing success in natural resource intensive sectors.
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Paper provided by United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs in its series Working Papers with number
24.
Find related papers by JEL classification: O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology F1 - International Economics - - Trade F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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