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Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India

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Author Info

  • Petri, Peter A.

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Zhai, Fan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Most projections envision continued rapid growth in the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India (collectively, ACI) over the next two decades. By 2030, they could quadruple their output, virtually eliminate extreme poverty, and dramatically transform the lives of their more than 3 billion citizens. The impact will be felt across the world. This study—a background paper to an Asian Development Bank report—used a Computable General Equilibrium model to examine the likely effects of the region's growth on trade, resources and the environment, as well as the implications of the many risks the region's growth path faces from its internal and external environment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 404.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0404

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Related research

Keywords: asean; prc; india; world economy; aci; great transformation; growth engines;

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  1. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2010. "Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 220, Asian Development Bank.
  2. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-35, October.
  3. Rodrik, Dani, 1998. "Where Did all the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collapses," CEPR Discussion Papers 1789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kawai, Masahiro & Zhai, Fan, 2010. "Asia’s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 122-151.
  5. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," ADBI Working Papers 368, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  6. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
  7. Roland-Holst, David & Verbiest, Jean-Pierre & Zhai, Fan, 2005. "Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 76-107.
  8. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2009. "Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 15433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 93-118, 06.
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