Asia's Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis
AbstractUsing a dynamic global general equilibrium model, the paper assesses the short- and medium-term impacts of the global financial crisis on Asian economies and the implications of post-crisis adjustment in emerging East Asia (EEA) for the world economy. The analysis suggests that EEA is unlikely to be severely damaged permanently by the global financial crisis, and a worldwide fiscal stimulus could play an important role in stabilizing the global economy in crisis. EEA’s efforts at strengthening regional demand, in conjunction with adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime, will promote more balanced regional growth and facilitate an orderly global rebalancing. However, despite the growing size of EEA in the global economy, the region’s growth rebalancing has only modest spillover effects on the rest of the world. EEA can contribute to global growth, but it alone cannot become the sole engine driving post-crisis growth in the world economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 254.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
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Computable general equilibrium model; global financial crisis; Easst Asia; emerging;
Other versions of this item:
- Kawai, Masahiro & Zhai, Fan, 2010. "Asia’s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 122-151.
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2010-12-04 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-SEA-2010-12-04 (South East Asia)
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- Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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