IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v22y2011i4p311-321.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Zhiwei
  • Zhang, Wenlang

Abstract

The worst of the global financial crisis is behind us, but the trajectory to recovery varies widely across economies. Employing a dynamic structural multi-country model with a financial accelerator, this paper studies the roles of two important policy actions in economic recovery: fiscal stimulus and financial sector rehabilitation. The main finding is that while both factors contribute to economic recovery, the former is likely to be less effective from a medium-term perspective and may generate some negative side effects. This suggests that policy priority should be on continued financial sector rehabilitation, particularly in advanced economies. Moreover, international policy co-ordination is beneficial as it can generate spill-over effects to regional economies. We also study a potential risk to economic recovery down the road: an over-estimation of the post-crisis potential output by the monetary authorities in advanced economies. It is found that this may lead to an overly accommodative monetary policy stance, which could lead to a resurgence in inflation and hence will darken the medium-term growth prospects of the world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhiwei & Zhang, Wenlang, 2011. "The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-321, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:311-321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007811000236
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Wenlang & Zhang, Zhiwei & Han, Gaofeng, 2010. "How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia-Pacific economies?--Analysis based on a general equilibrium model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 280-292, June.
    2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Sherry L. Kiser & Jahyeong Koo, 2001. "Recovery from a financial crisis: the case of South Korea," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 24-36.
    4. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
    5. N'Diaye, Papa & Zhang, Ping & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "Structural reform, intra-regional trade, and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific--Perspectives from a new multi-region model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 20-36, February.
    6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    7. Lillian Cheung & Chi-Sang Tam & Jessica Szeto, 2009. "Deteriorating Public Finances and Rising Government Debt: Implications for Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0915, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    8. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 730-744, December.
    10. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2002. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity During Recessions in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2002/087, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2007/202, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 2006/081, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    14. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
    15. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    16. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2009. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 2009/160, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank.
    18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Søren Ravn & Morten Spange, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 451-476, July.
    2. Evan Lau & ALVINA SYN-YEE Lee & MOHAMMAD AFFENDY Arip, 2015. "Macroeconomics Determinants Of External Debt In Malaysia," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 14-26, December.
    3. Florian Gerth & Vikash Ramiah & Elissar Toufaily & Glenn Muschert, 2021. "Assessing the effectiveness of Covid-19 financial product innovations in supporting financially distressed firms and households in the UAE," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 215-225, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "The Road to Recovery: Fiscal Stimulus, Financial Sector Rehabilitation, and Exit from Policy Easing," Working Papers 0918, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    2. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2004. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 257-280, June.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    5. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    6. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June.
    7. Liu, Li-gang & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "A New Keynesian model for analysing monetary policy in Mainland China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 540-551, December.
    8. Bazhenova Olena & Bazhenova Yuliya, 2016. "Modelling the Impact of External Shocks on Economy of Ukraine: Dsge Approach," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(1), pages 64-83, January.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary policy in a changing environment," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 19.
    10. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2004. "The Cost of Nominal Inertia in NNS Models," NBER Working Papers 10889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    13. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    14. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2008. "Regime shifts and the stability of backward-looking Phillips curves in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-53, February.
    15. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2010. "Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 129-143.
    16. Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    18. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 215-232.
    19. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    20. Gregory Erin Givens, 2006. "Revisiting the Delegation Problem in a Sticky Price and Wage Economy," Working Papers 200601, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:311-321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.