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How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?

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  • Dong He
  • Zhiwei Zhang
  • Wenlang Zhang
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Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of China's fiscal stimulus package on output and employment. The input-output analysis shows that the package has a multiplier of approximately 0.84 in the short run, generating 18-20 million new jobs in non-farming sectors in the first year. A dynamic structural model shows that the multiplier is around 1.1 in the medium run as fiscal spending leads to higher household consumption and corporate investment over time. The size of the fiscal multiplier also depends on the cyclical conditions of the economy, the policy environment and the distribution of funds across sectors. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Pacific Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 730-744

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Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:14:y:2009:i:5:p:730-744

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Cited by:
  1. Diao, Xinshen & Zhang, Yumei & Chen, Kevin Z., 2012. "The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-17.
  2. Afsin Sahin & Aysit Tansel & M.Hakan Berument, 2013. "Output-Employment Relationship across Sectors:A Long- versus Short-Run Perspective," ERC Working Papers 1305, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2013.
  3. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2013. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," FIW Working Paper series 116, FIW.
  4. Yingxin Shi & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2013. "Long-Run Fiscal Multiplier for Autonomous Prefectures in China," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-10, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  5. Jha, Veena, 2009. "The effects of fiscal stimulus packages on employment," ILO Working Papers 433897, International Labour Organization.
  6. Zhang, Zhiwei & Zhang, Wenlang, 2011. "The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-321, August.

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