Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems
AbstractComputable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing developing countries. For these economies, the most widely used demand systems tend to over-predict future food demands, and hence overestimate future production and import requirements for agricultural products.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Working Papers with number 1182.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 21
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1145 Krannert Building, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
Phone: (765) 494-4267
Fax: 765 494-9176
Web page: http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2003-03-25 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2003-03-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2003-03-10 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John A.L. Cranfield & Thomas W. Hertel & James S. Eales & Paul V. Preckel, 1998.
"Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1042-1050.
- Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999.
"Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution,"
2020 vision briefs
61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, 04.
- Bach, Christian Friis, et al, 2000. "Market Growth, Structural Change, and the Gains from the Uruguay Round," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 295-310, May.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-30, May.
- Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
- Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-83, June.
- Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997.
"The World Food Outlook,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521580106, December.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998.
"Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
- Coyle, William T. & Mark Gehlhar & Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of structural Change in World Food Markets," GTAP Working Papers 260, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Jean-Marc Burniaux & François Delorme & Ian Lienert & John P. Martin & Peter Hoeller, 1988. "Quantifying the Economy-Wide Effects of Agricultural Policies: A General Equilibrium Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 55, OECD Publishing.
- Clements, Kenneth W & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1994. "Understanding Consumption Patterns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 69-110.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997.
"Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996. "Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Cranfield & Paul Preckel & James Eales & Thomas Hertel, 2000. "On the estimation of 'an implicitly additive demand system'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(15), pages 1907-1915.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
- Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
- Maureen T. Rimmer & Alan A. Powell, 1992. "Demand Patterns Across the Development Spectrum: Estimates for the AIDADS System," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-75, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Theil, Henri, 1983. "World Product and Income: A Review Article," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 505-17, June.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeremy Douglas).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.