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Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration

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  • David Roland-Holst
  • Jean-Pierre Verbiest
  • Fan Zhai

Abstract

With the emergence of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy have changed. Using a new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. Our results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As an emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.

Suggested Citation

  • David Roland-Holst & Jean-Pierre Verbiest & Fan Zhai, 2005. "Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 76-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:adrxxx:v:22:y:2005:i:02:n:s0116110505500083
    DOI: 10.1142/S0116110505500083
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    2. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. D’Artis Kancs, 2010. "Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 270-288, September.
    2. Nana Asimeng Peasah & Barnes Evans John, 2016. "Analysis of the Nexus between Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: A Panel Study Of Brics Countries," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 455-471, December.
    3. Dilip K. Das, 2008. "South Asia's Integration with the Rest of Asia: a survey," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 22(1), pages 25-40, May.
    4. Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. François Bafoil & Ruiwen Lin, 2010. "Re-examining the Role of Transport Infrastructure in Trade, Regional Growth and Governance: Comparing the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and Central Eastern Europe (CEE)," Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 29(2), pages 73-119.
    6. Alan Bollard & Mark Smith, 2006. "Major global developments in the new millennium," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-14., June.
    7. Dollar, David, 2007. "Asian century or multi-polar century ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4174, The World Bank.
    8. Brooks, Douglas H. & Roland-Holst, David & Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Behavioral and empirical perspectives on FDI: International capital allocation across Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 40-52, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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