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Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems

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Author Info
Yu, Wusheng
Hertel, Thomas W.
Preckel, Paul V.
Eales, James S.

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Abstract

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternaive demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing developing countries. For these economies, the most widely used demand systems tend to over-predict future food demands, and hence overestimate future production and import requirements for agricultural products.

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Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa with number 25905.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25905

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Keywords: food demand; agricultural trade; functional form; demand system; CGE modeling; Demand and Price Analysis; D12; C68; F17; Q18;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cranfield, John A L, et al, 2000. "On the Estimation of 'An Implicitly Additive Demand System.'," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(15), pages 1907-15, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Maureen T. Rimmer & Alan A. Powell, 1992. "Demand Patterns Across the Development Spectrum: Estimates for the AIDADS System," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-75, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jean-Marc Burniaux & François Delorme & Ian Lienert & John P. Martin & Peter Hoeller, 1988. "Quantifying the Economy-Wide Effects of Agricultural Policies: A General Equilibrium Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 55, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bach, Christian Friis, et al, 2000. "Market Growth, Structural Change, and the Gains from the Uruguay Round," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 295-310, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996. "Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Fan Zhai, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1944, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ludena, Carlos, 2004. "Impact Of Productivity Growth In Crops And Livestock On World Food Trade Patterns," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20366, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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