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Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data

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  • J. A. L. Cranfield
  • James S. Eales
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Paul V. Preckel

Abstract

This paper assesses the ability of five structural demand systems to predict demands when estimated with cross sectional data spanning countries with widely varying per capita expenditure levels. Results indicate demand systems with less restrictive income responses are superior to demand systems with more restrictive income effects. Among the least restrictive demand systems considered, An Implicitly, Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS) and Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) seem roughly tied for best, while the Quadratic Expenditure System (QES) is a close second. Given differences in the characteristics of AIDADS and QUAIDS, it is concluded the former is better suited to instances where income exhibits wide variation and the latter to cases when prices exhibit considerable variation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 353-364

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:2:p:353-364

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Keywords: Key words: Consumer demand; model selection;

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2007. "Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 22, pages 289-337, 04.
  2. Paul de Boer & Bjarne S. Jensen, 2005. "The Expenditure System of CDES Indirect Utility Functions," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_036, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Goddard, Ellen W. & Shank, Benjamin & Panter, Chris & Nilsson, Tomas K.H. & Cash, Sean B., 2007. "Canadian Chicken Industry: Consumer Preferences, Industry Structure and Producer Benefits from Investment in Research and Advertising," Project Report Series 52088, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  4. Liu, Kang Ernest, 2006. "A Quadratic Generalization of the Almost Ideal and Translog Demand Systems: An Application to Food Demand in Urban China," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21387, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  5. Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., Jr., 2010. "Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries," Technical Bulletins 59870, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  6. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2004. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3444, The World Bank.
  8. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, 2012. "Quantity Versus Shares in Estimating Demand Systems," Working Papers 124575, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  9. Arabatzis, Garyfallos & Klonaris, Stathis, 2009. "An analysis of Greek wood and wood product imports: Evidence from the linear quadratic aids," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 266-270, July.
  10. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, 2014. "Testing the Adding Up Condition in Demand Systems," Working Papers 171748, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  11. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Hertel, Thomas W., 2014. "Confronting the food-energy-environment trilemma : global land use in the long run," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6928, The World Bank.
  12. Ole Boysen, 2012. "A Food Demand System Estimation for Uganda," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp396, IIIS.
  13. Paula Carvalho Pereda & Denisard Cneio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Demand for Nutrients in Brazil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211136590, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  14. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Ivanic, Maros & Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2005. "Agriculture Productivity Growth: Is the Current Trend on the Track to Poverty Reduction?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19152, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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