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Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will pay for its food imports. The paper addresses this question by first reviewing existing food sector projections and then taking an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores the effects of slower global agricultural productivity growth and of slower economic growth in China. Several policy shocks are also examined. They include the entry of China (and hence Taiwan) into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the failure to fully abolish the bilateral quotas on textiles and clothing trade as promised under the Uruguay Round. A slow-down in farm productivity growth could be very costly to the world economy, as could slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries is shown to reduce East Asia’s industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China’s WTO membership would greatly benefit the economies of China and the world. It would boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand, not only by China, but also its densely populated neighbours with whom its intra- and inter-industry trade in manufactures would intensify.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1474.

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Date of creation: Sep 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1474

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Keywords: Asia-Pacific; Economic Projections; Food and Agriculture Markets; Global CGE Modelling;

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References

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  1. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318.
  2. Jefferson, Gary H. & Rawski, Thomas G. & Zheng, Yuxin, 1996. "Chinese Industrial Productivity: Trends, Measurement Issues, and Recent Developments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 146-180, October.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
  4. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840.
  5. Trela, Irene & Whalley, John, 1995. "Internal Quota-Allocation Schemes and the Costs of the MFA," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 284-306, October.
  6. Lipsey, Robert E., 1994. "Quality change and other influences on measures of export prices of manufactured goods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1348, The World Bank.
  7. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
  8. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1997. "Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 1605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I., 2000. "Rural-Urban Migration, Labor Mobility And Agricultural Trade Liberalization In China," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21727, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Eales, James, 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," GTAP Working Papers 1182, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Hans Meijl & Frank Tongeren, 1998. "Trade, technology spillovers, and food production in China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 423-449, September.
  4. Ludena, Carlos & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Foster, Kenneth & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," GTAP Working Papers 2220, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  5. Anania, Giovanni, 2001. "Modeling Agricultural Trade Liberalization. A Review," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20758, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), June.
  7. Anderson, Kym, 1998. "Are resource-abundant economies disadvantaged?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(1), March.
  8. Felloni, Fabrizio & Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I. & Wandschneider, Philip, 2003. "Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 28(3), May.
  9. Rae, Allan N. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(3), September.
  10. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  11. Anonymous, 1998. "Grain Market Reform in China: Global Implications," Technical Reports 113816, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
  12. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
  13. Masayoshi Homna & Ray Trewin & Jennifer Amyx & Allan Rae, 2000. "A Way Forward for Japanese Agriculture," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 300, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Fuller, Frank H. & Beghin, John C. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fang, Cheng & de Cara, Stephane & Matthey, Holger, 2001. "China'S Accession To The World Trade Organization: Impact On Agricultural Markets," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20619, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  15. Anderson, Kym, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  16. Maeda, Koushi & Suzuki, Xohuhiro & Kaiser, Harry M., 2001. "An Economic Evaluation Of The New Agricultural Trade Negotiations: A Nonlinear Imperfectly Competitive Spatial Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 7231, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  17. Harry X Wu & Christopher Findlay, 1997. "China's Grain Demand and Supply: Trade Implications," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-04, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.

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