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Will China's WTO Accession Worsen Rural Poverty?

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Ianchovichina, Elena

Abstract

Many fear China’s accession to WTO will impoverish its farmers, via greater import competition in its agricultural markets. We explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labour-intensive) farm and non-farm products could rise. New estimates, from the global, economy-wide numerical simulation model known as GTAP, of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession are drawn on to examine empirically the real income implications of China’s WTO accession. The results suggest farm/non-farm income inequality may well rise within China but rural-urban income inequality need not. The Paper concludes with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4196.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4196

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Keywords: china's economic reform; income inequality; rural poverty; wto accession;

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References

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  1. Scott Rozelle & Liniux Zhang & Jikun Huang, . "Employment, Emerging Labor Markets, and the Role of Education in Rural China," REAP Papers 22568, Rural Education Action Project at Stanford University.
  2. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
  3. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, 04.
  4. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September.
  5. Ianchovichina, Elena & Martin, William, 2003. "Economic impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3053, The World Bank.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2004. "Standards, Trade And Protection: The Case Of Gmos," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  7. Joseph F. Francois & Dean Spinanger, 2004. "Regulated Efficiency, World Trade Organization Accession, and the Motor Vehicle Sector in China," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-049/2, Tinbergen Institute.
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  12. Anderson, Kym, 1993. "Lobbying Incentives and the Pattern of Protection in Rich and Poor Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Scott Rozelle & Albert Park & Jikun Huang & Hehui Jin, 1997. "Liberalization and Rural Market Integration in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 635-642.
  14. Terry Sicular & Yaohui Zhao, 2002. "Earnings and Labor Mobility in Rural China: Implications for China's WTO Entry," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20028, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
  15. Fan, Shenggen & Fang, Cheng & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2001. "How Agricultural Research Affects Urban Poverty In Developing Countries? The Case Of China," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20636, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  16. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Martin, William J. & Liu, Yu, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in China," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48478, World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Min & Sumner, Daniel A., 2004. "Trade Impact On Food Security: Analysis On Farm Households In Rural China," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20322, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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