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Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005

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Author Info

  • Anderson, Kym
  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of key trade reforms likely to affect the APEC region over the next decade. It does so by taking an economy-wide perspective using projections to the year 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. The paper begins by showing that the empirical impact of implementing the Uruguay Round depends significantly on how China and Taiwan are treated. It then explores the market implications of increased economic growth in China, as well as several policy shocks. It is shown that increased industrial growth in China – due to China integrating more into the global economy – would be beneficial to the world, since it would boost industrialization in other Asian countries. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries, on the other hand, is shown to reduce East Asia’s industrialization and thereby slow the growth in this region’s net imports. Further MFN trade liberalization by APEC members, however, could add substantially to the growth and structural changes expected in the region and beyond over the next decade. The latter benefits are shown, though, to depend heavily on the inclusion of agriculture in the APEC reform, something that Northeast Asian countries have been reluctant to do.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1605.

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Date of creation: May 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1605

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Related research

Keywords: APEC; Asia-Pacific; Economic Projections; Global CGE Modelling; Uruguay Round;

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Cited by:
  1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Development Economics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 9779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Rolf J. Langhammer & Matthias Lücke, 1999. "WTO Accession Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(6), pages 837-873, 08.
  5. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I., 2000. "Rural-Urban Migration, Labor Mobility And Agricultural Trade Liberalization In China," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21727, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030," Working Papers 145369, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  7. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
  8. Anderson, Kym, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  10. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
  11. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.
  12. Elbehri, Aziz & Leetmaa, Susan E., 2001. "How Significant Are Export Subsidies To Agricultural Trade? Trade And Welfare Implications Of Global Reforms," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  13. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Anderson, Kym, 2000. "Agriculture, Developing Countries, And The WTO Millennium Round," CEPR Discussion Papers 2437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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