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The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Strutt, Anna

Abstract

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 303-323

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Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:303-323

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

Related research

Keywords: Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth; South–South trade; Intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes;

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Cited by:
  1. Anderson, Kym, 2013. "Agricultural Price Distortions: Trends and Volatility, Past and Prospective," CEPR Discussion Papers 9286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.

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